Biden Surge On Super Tuesday Spells Trouble For Democrats

Are we about to witness 2016 all over again?

Going on the current trend, you certainly can’t rule that out. So here I am, a New Zealander with no sway on the US election, and I’m here to tell you that the surge of Joe Biden in Super Tuesday spells big trouble for the Democrats.

I like Joe Biden, he reminds me of my poppa actually. Astute, polite, knowledgeable and capable of getting the job done. But like my poppa, he’s old, when you listen to him speak you know what he’s going to say and while you can’t help but agree with a lot of it, you’ve heard it all before.

That about sums up Super Tuesday in a nutshell so far. It feels like what we are watching, we’ve watched not only before, but time and time again. It’s the safe bet, but arguably, not a winning one.

It’s all still going down and the votes continue to come in, but as I saw in a tweet just prior to writing this, it appears that the DNC are getting the man they want leading the ballot.

On current trend, Sanders might just have to sit back and watch the DNC rally around another candidate, not himself.

First it was Virginia, then it was North Carolina. Those were the first two warning signs that this was going to be a tough run for the Bernie Sanders campaign.

Joe Biden has owned Super Tuesday, so far at least.

The word ‘momentum’ has been used a lot today to explain the success Biden is having. Clearly, the prevailing opinion seems to be that the tide has turned for the former Vice President on the back of winning South Carolina and the subsequent endorsements from Peter Buttigieg and then Amy Klobuchar when they dropped out.

Bernie, in direct contrast, appears to be out in the cold on this Super Tuesday and will be in an unwinnable position (you’d guess) if he can’t catch up somehow. Everyone says that Bernie will take California, and he must, but maybe the bigger question here surrounds the young voters, are they going to turn out in droves or just drabs?

If it’s the latter, it will just speak to the wider issue of politics, not just in the US but also here in New Zealand, the young voters just don’t engage in the numbers that you’d hope. It has serious political consequences, and if Biden does indeed go through come the Democratic Convention, Sanders can look back at this portion of voters and ask himself why they didn’t come out in support.

Texas is too close to call right now, but Sanders has just won Colorado, that leaves Boston as one of the other major targets the socialist must win.

I’m no political expert, just an interested bystander. Frankly, I’ve found the last three years to be nothing short of remarkable, but in all the worst ways. Politics in the US has become a reality TV show, voters have become so divided it’s almost tribal.

No matter what happens in November, Super Tuesday has just shown a major warning sign that 2016 is threatening to repeat itself all over again.

Choosing a candidate like Biden reminds you of Obama, who in turn reminds you of Clinton (Hilary, that is). That very formula and the distrust that the American voters have in the establishment has all the chances in the world of handing another three years to Donald Trump.

It’s only a few hours into the voting counts, but so far, Super Tuesday signals that Biden, not Sanders, is going to challenge later on in the year.

Paula Tesoriero, Disability Rights Commissioner Interview

The following is a full transcription of an interview with New Zealand’s Disability Rights Commissioner, Paula Tesoriero.

Michael Pulman: How are you feeling coming into 2020?

Paula Tesoriero: Well, I think we’ve got a huge number of challenges for the disability sector and in an election year, as always, it’s an opportune time to be talking about those in the public sphere. While we’ve got a number of challenges, I also think it’s a huge year for opportunity and so I’m feeling energized.

Mike Pulman: In 2019, there were some negative headlines, but it was a positive year in some ways with free public transport in some parts of the country and then Robert Martin. What was your reaction to that news?

Paula Tesoriero: Oh, I was just delighted to wake up to the news. I think that it’s been a real boost for the disability community. I think it’s also thoroughly well deserved. I think it really highlights for other disabled people, for the New Zealand public at large and internationally, actually, about what people with learning disabilities contribute to the world. It’s a really significant deal for obviously, Robert, but also for our community.

Mike Pulman: Yeah definitely, and I guess moving into perhaps a national discussion about disability, something like this is good to help inspire that?

Paula Tesoriero: Yes, I agree completely.

Mike Pulman: Moving into this year, an election, hopefully, there will be a lot of focus on this sector because it desperately needs some help. What are some of the areas you want to focus on this year?

Paula Tesoriero: I think that there is, as you know, and the people listening to this know, the list of things that we need to deal with as a country around disability are really significant so it’s always hard to narrow it down to a core group of things, but that’s the only way we make progress, I think. So the key things that I’ll be focusing on this year and in no particular order are the education reforms, as we know our education system is not inclusive and it continues to be a key area that disabled people and their families talk to me about so I’m going to continue the work that I was heavily involved in last year and continuing to make numerous submissions and hopefully influence the government to really use these reforms to deliver an inclusive education system. So that’s one area, the second area is that there’s a range of things that sort of set what I call loosely in a health bucket that I think this year we critically need to make progress on.  One area is far better supports for people with neuro disabilities. Last year, I did a lot of work with fetal alcohol spectrum disorder community and really started to learn much more about the significant challenges faced by people who face day in their families and how that group who are not eligible for disability support services by virtue alone and having it face day fall through the cracks at so many stages. So, we’re doing some work together and with the Ministry of Health to try and address that, also with the Minister for Disability, she’s also in that package as is the system’s transformation work. There’s also the funded family care and changes that I hope we’ll see this year that vote on last year. Then there’s the level of funding for supports disabled people. So there’s not the total sum of issues in there and the health backup. We’ll be finalizing an independent monitoring mechanism. Our report to parliament in the lean on New Zealand’s examination in relation to the CRPD date. And you know, we’ve done a lot of work in the second part of last year, numerous hui around the country with disabled people and so I’m really looking forward to finalizing that in the first part of this year.

Mike Pulman: What was the general sense around the country in terms of what we are doing in that CRPD space?

Paula Tesoriero: The overwhelming take on the report is that yes, of course, there’s been some improvement in some areas and the government have announced some reforms across particular portfolios that impact the disability community. But by and large, there’s still quite some way to go across almost every article. It was pretty humbling to hear people’s experiences and get a sense of how frustrated they are while also acknowledging that there are some good things happening. Violence and abuse also, this wasn’t a topic that I made a priority when I came into the role but it’s become a priority for a number of reasons. One, I’m not satisfied that, with the current reforms underway, there is enough of a focus on disabled people. Secondly, I commissioned some work last year to pull together the information that we know domestically and internationally about violence and abuse towards disabled people. One of the key issues that disabled women raised was violence and abuse. So I then commissioned some further work right at the end of the year, which I’ve now received, making some recommendations about what I can do in my role to impact this. And then look, finally, it’s going to be a year with not only the election but the referendum on the end of life choice. We know this is something that I have talked a lot about. And, you know, I sort of welcome discussion on this. I’ve been very clear. I hope that my views about the safeguards and particular issues relate to this bill. So, you know, I think often the debate becomes whether or not we should give an assisted dying regime. And that’s not really the issue here. The issue here is this particular bill. And finally, and this is the real finally, there are a number of reviews that we made submissions on last year. So, for example, the mental health review, the Health and Disability System Review, Child poverty, etc and I will continue to be monitoring those and also having ongoing.

Mike Pulman: Sounds like a busy year ahead and I’ve got a number of questions about this. This work in violence, is it just in terms of relationships?

Paula Tesoriero: No. I think that one of the really important impacts for disabled people is that it’s not just about angles of domestic violence. It can be admitted into settings, community-based care settings, violence and abuse more broadly.

Mike Pulman: I guess part of a national discussion about disability, and the real benefit of that, is hearing from sections of the community that we haven’t even seen or considered?

Paula Tesoriero: I absolutely agree. I think that fetal alcohol spectrum disorder community is one such community. It’s a hugely dedicated group of people who advocated for years toward changes. We have a real opportunity through early intervention, through getting in and providing support for young people and the families to hopefully change their trajectory. I think that this is an area which, again, New Zealand doesn’t talk about the alcohol spectrum disorder in the way that we should. To date, there has been some focus on prevention. But actually, what we critically need in New Zealand now is a focus on support that people will get. That’s what I’m trying to support the community to do, to really focus the government’s mind on support for these people. But you’re right, we have a big opportunity to talk with different groups in our community and make sure that we all have a really good understanding of disability right across our sector.

Mike Pulman: I want to ask you about the End of Life Choice Bill. What would the percentage be between people you’ve heard from who are against this bill versus those who might support it?

Paula Tesoriero: I can’t really gauge that in terms of the general population. But in terms of disabled people, the people who have communicated with me by far overwhelmingly are against it. Very, very few people who have identified themselves as being disabled have contacted me saying they disagree with my point. I think what I continue to encourage people to do is really get to grips with the contents of this bill because my worry is that we will have a discussion this year about whether or not we have an assisted dying regime. Actually, that’s not the question here. I think it’s really important for the disability community to understand the specifics of this bill because if we are going to have some kind of regime in the future then we need to have one that is really robust and really safe. One where we have a way of guaranteeing that there won’t be wrongful deaths.

Mike Pulman: How did you feel going out an advocating so passionately against this? What was the experience like for you?

Paula Tesoriero: I think, you know, this role is a role where, you know, I do feel a weight of responsibility and that there may be times that shows. It’s a privilege to be in this role and so I take every opportunity I can to influence better outcomes, but this particular debate was hard. This seems to be an issue where people are not afraid to make quite personal attacks. My view on when you resort to making personal attacks is that it’s a way of not really engaging in the issues, so I had to just put up with the fact that there were some personal attacks coming my way and at times, as you know, on social media there can be some fairly brutal ones. I really see that those sorts of attacks are just people’s inability to actually debate the issues.

Mike Pulman: Ok, but what’s the plan if the bill does pass? What then?

Paula Tesoriero: I’m still working through exactly what I’ll do. I certainly intend to be part of the conversation. I will continue to say much of what I’ve said before around my concerns, around safeguards and the way in which this bill operates. I’m really focused on trying to enable disabled people to live good lives. All the challenges we’ve got this year, the end of life choice is a really significant issue for New Zealand. But ultimately, it will be one issue, one part of a series of things I work on. I’m looking forward to the public debate. I just really hope that all New Zealanders, and in particular our community, can focus on the substantive issues and not let this become a personal attack on people, because it’s not a way through this.

Mike Pulman: What was your reaction to the NZDSN report in late 2019?

Paula Tesoriero: I’m sure like many in the disability community, I’m really concerned. I think we have a really, really serious issue in New Zealand where a whole lot of things come in a way for disabled people that doesn’t enable us to leave these lives. If you look at the poverty stats, you look at the employment stats, you look at the educational outcomes, the housing situation, and then the issues around funding for sports, we’ve got a real issue in New Zealand where we need to support disabled people better. I think that that report really highlighted some quite significant issues. So like you, I was pretty concerned, I’ve read the report a couple of times now, and it’s something that, you know, we need to continue collectively working on.

Mike Pulman: Were you at all concerned that the voice of disabled people was missing in that report? Was there much consultation from disabled people because there were suggestions that it was very much presented in the interests of providers.

Paula Tesoriero: I don’t know in terms of specific consultation. I know that in my discussions with NZDSN have always been driven around outcomes for disabled people. But there’ll always be that tension and service providers can’t and don’t speak for disabled people.

Mike Pulman: Last time we talked, you said that we need to have a discussion and cost out what it’s going to take in order to develop a system that delivers. Do you feel we are any closer to that?

Paula Tesoriero: I think that we’ve got some way to go in having the EGL principles truly embedded across government. I continue to listen to disabled people’s experiences and I welcome people sharing those experiences with me. I think that what I saw, particularly last year was the coming together of a number of really significant disability-related issues in New Zealand. I think we’re at a point in time where there’s a far greater awareness across government of the issues. I’m not convinced there are solutions by any stretch. These are the issues facing disabled New Zealanders. Here is the evidence. Here’s what we understand. So actually, there’s an onus on the government to ensure that they are adequately addressed.

Mike Pulman:  Yep. I totally agree. All right, well we’ll leave it there Paula. Thank you for joining me. I appreciate it. We’ll talk soon, I’m sure.

Paula Tesoriero: Thanks, Michael. See ya.

Saving & Sustaining Disability Supports In 2020

Buckle in and get ready folks, 2020 should be a year like no other as it pertains to saving and sustaining the disability support system. 

Before we can look forward, we must, as always, take a look back. By any reasonable measure; 2019 was a year of positive stories that should’ve aided optimism heading into what many believe will be a make or break decade for a sector all to often forgotten by the establishment.

In fact, 2019 was pretty great, really.

There was free, yes free, public transport for disabled people in the Waikato, something that was pushed over the line by local advocates. There was the emergence of The Cookie Project as a way to increase disabled employment that appears to be working and, to top it all off, Robert Martin was recognized for his services to the disability community with a knighthood on the New Year honours list.

Indeed, it was a year of highlights if you were willing to look past some of the negative headlines that were shining a light on funding challenges facing existing support systems and the viability of new ones.

And here we are, fresh into a new decade which kicks off with an election year, meaning it is the year of promises. Oh, can’t you feel the sense of optimism?

MP’s Must Show They Care About Disabled People

There will be all the usual discussion of voting and how disabled people make 24% of the population, which means every effort should be made to make the voting process as accessible as possible to the forgotten “voice”. Familiar? Yes.

There will be discussion, perhaps even a few throwing their hat into the ring, surrounding “actual disabled people” being involved in the political establishment, locally and nationally. Familiar? Yes.

Then there are the actual promises themselves, by way of policy and the visions behind such. In other words; there are the actual roadmaps, explanations and commitments behind all the meetings that will take place. Familiar? Yes.

Nothing in 2020 will be new, at least from the spoken word, but it’s the action part where the guts of whatever direction is taken will or won’t be found.

The various MP’s responsible for such matters on both sides of the house have had ample opportunity to engage with disabled people and their families about the issues impacting them, but like usual, the next eleven months prior to the polls will be when most discussions are had.

Make no mistake, there is a difference between politicians hearing and seeing the stories from their own eyes versus hearing it through reports sent by advocacy groups, representational orgs and the ministries implementing systems.

One could argue that the Ministry of Health (MoH), in particular, is coming into 2020 facing the most distrust from the disability community that it’s ever endured. How to turn that, distrust at one level and uncertainty at the core, will be no easy task.

In order to win voters, Carmel Sepuloni, the Minister for Disability Issues, and Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter, need to front the criticisms that came in 2019 head-on and actually discuss them.

Just how did the MoH come so close to making such radical cuts? How can disabled people, many of which make up eligible voters, trust that there is actually a sustainable system in place to ensure it doesn’t become a possibility again? How much further investment is needed, not just to cover all basis, but assume sustainability?

All key questions need to be asked because what happened in April 2019, and the lead up to it, wasn’t the MoH just deciding to be bad people and take care away from disabled people. Quite the opposite, in fact, it was something which the powers that be determined was a requirement in order to be cost-effective.

The only way to ensure such an occurrence doesn’t happen is to invest. Either that, or finally admit that the system may not be as inclusive as many would have you believe.

In their hard-hitting report towards the end of 2019, NZDSN (New Zealand Disability Support Network), advocating on behalf of providers, said that there needs to be a national discussion about what a “reasonable and necessary” taxpayer contribution towards Enabling Good Lives and what its sustainability is.

The question then becomes, if it turns out that the new system isn’t sustainable, then what?

That’s why, whichever way you lean politically, 2020’s election will likely see policies that promise a significant uptake in investment towards the Disability Support System (DSS). There will be an announcement as to the future of Enabling Good Lives, and this could potentially include a timeframe for when the “new system” rolls out nationally.

It’s hard to see what else either Labour or National can do in order to make a splash, and by any sense of scale, this is an area where a fresh coat of paint is needed. Whilst Enabling Lives may represent the great new frontier, behind how the principles are being implemented reeks of the old ways of doing business.

It all becomes about how much either party and their responsible ministers truly care about doing something in this area.

The absolute worst result would be a middling, half-baked and long-term vision that is light on detail. You’ll likely get “over three years” type of talk from politicians, but if there is no substance behind whatever is said, alarm bells should rightly ring come November.

Also, let’s not forget how political the End of Life Choice bill and Legalization of Cannabis will become in terms of the disability space if they haven’t already. These two conversations have the potential to overshadow some of the crucial questions that need to be asked surrounding how support for disabled people is delivered and sustained in New Zealand.

Be very wary of that, every effort must be taken to ensure that all voices are heard and that there are actual answers to what those voices will ask.